Costs of sequestering carbon through tree planting and forest management in the United States

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GTR WO-58

Costs of Sequestering
Carbon Through Tree
Planting and Forest
Management in the
United States

USDA, National Agricultural Library
NAL Bldg

10301 Baltimore Bivd

Beitsviile, MD 20705-2351

Costs of Sequestering
Carbon Through Tree
Planting and Forest
Management in the
United States

Robert J. Moulton
Economist

Cooperative Forestry
State and Private Forestry
USDA Forest Service
Washington, DC 20090

Kenneth R. Richards
Graduate Fellow
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19104

General Technical Report WO-58
December 1990

Abstract

One approach to limiting the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is to
sequester carbon in forests. Several reports have estimated the amount of tree planting
and the associated costs that would be required to significantly effect the net release of
CO», but they have largely been “back of the envelope” calculations. This report employs
detailed data on actual planting practices, amounts of marginal agricultural land, average
merchantable timber yields, historic rental rates, and the ratio of total ecosystem carbon
to timber carbon to calculate the incremental amount of carbon that could be sequestered
by a rural tree planting and forest management program in the United States. Marginal
and total cost curves indicate the relation between costs and the extent of the sequestering
program.

Highlights

e Anextensive tree planting and forest management program could sequester as much
as 807 million short tons (56.4 percent of the current annual U.S. CQ, releases) at an
annual cost of $19.5 billion.

e A program to reduce U.S. net emissions of CO, by 20 percent would involve 138.4
million acres and cost $4.5 billion per year, or an average of $15.73 per short ton.

e The costs of carbon sequestering range from $5.26 to $43.33 per ton.

e Some of the least costly opportunities for carbon sequestering are on forestland
and marginal pastureland, although the largest portion of the carbon capture in a
program involving reductions of 10 percent or more must be on marginal cropland.

e The geographic distribution of marginal land indicates that such a planting program
would be largely concentrated in the Southeast, Appalachia, and the Gulf States.

Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the useful review comments by George Peterson, USDA Forest
Service, Rocky Mountain Station, and William Kurtz, School of Forestry, Fisheries and
Wildlife, University of Missouri-Columbia. Also, Researcher Michael Fosberg, USDA
Forest Service, Washington, D.C., assisted with the development of carbon factors for
wood.

Contents

Introduction 1

The Model 2
Basic Notation and Calculations 3
Procedure 3

Data Collection 5
Land Areaand Type 5
Cropland 5
Pastureland 6
Forestland 6
Rental Rate 7
Cropland 7
Pastureland 7
Forestland 7
Treatment Cost 8
Cropland 8
Pastureland 8
Forestland 8
Incremental Carbon Capture 8
Cropland 9
Pastureland 9
Forestland 9
Annualization of the Treatment Cost 9
Unit Cost of Sequestering Carbon 9
Carbon Sequestering Potential 10
Development of Cost Curves 10

Results and Discussion 11
Limitations of the Analysis 132
References 15

Appendix A—Tables 17

Appendix B—Figures 44

Introduction

While the U.S. Government is studying the
science of global climate change, it also is
evaluating policy options for affirmative
action to reduce risks associated with the
greenhouse effect. The principal ways to
decrease the emissions of carbon dioxide
(CO.), the primary contributor to the
greenhouse effect, are increasing energy
efficiency and switching to nonfossil or
low-carbon fuels. These changes may be
achieved directly through Government
intervention and regulation or indirectly
through taxation and related marketable
permits.

Alternatively, the Government may wish

to consider achieving a portion of its CO,
reduction goals by considering the effect that
tree planting and modified forest practices
could have on net emissions (that is, the
total CO, emissions less the CO, sequestered
in new forest plantings). To evaluate this
forestry potential, the Government should
compare the cost of carbon sequestering
through tree planting with the cost of carbon
emissions avoidance achieved through
investments in energy efficiency and
alternative energy sources. While there have
been several studies that have evaluated the
costs of carbon sequestering (Dudek 1988,
Marland 1988, Sedjo 1989), their analyses
generally have not considered that, as with
most production or extraction processes,
there is an increasing marginal cost of
sequestering carbon.

This report examines the potential
contribution that a large-scale rural tree
planting and forest management program
could make toward reducing net CO,
emissions in the United States. The land
areas in the hypothetical program include
economically marginal and environmentally

sensitive croplands and pasturelands, as well
as forestlands held by private owners other
than the forest industry.

Trees would be established on agricultural
lands principally by planting trees, although
direct seeding would be used in some
instances (for example, certain bottomland
hardwood species). For existing forestlands,
both tree planting and natural regeneration
methods would be used to treat poorly
stocked stands of trees. Other practices

for forestlands include the elimination of
indiscriminate livestock grazing and timber
harvesting, both of which result in damaged
and understocked timber stands, and the
replacement of decadent trees with faster
growing, younger trees.

Public lands are not considered in this
report, in large part because the public
ownership of croplands and pasturelands

is negligible. The public does control a
large and important range resource, but
trees are not the dominant form of natural
vegetation on rangelands. Therefore, these
lands offer comparatively few opportunities
for large-scale forestry programs. Likewise,
public forestlands offer only a limited
opportunity for expanded reforestation
because, as a matter of law and policy,
regeneration is already taking place on these
lands following timber harvests, fires, and
other disturbances. The forest industry in
the United States in recent decades also has
been very active in managing forestlands for
increased productivity.

The data regarding planting and management
costs and mix of tree species are from
practices developed jointly by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest
Service and State foresters and approved

by county Agricultural Stabilization and
Conservation (ASC) committees. As such,
these calculations comprise the most detailed,
and perhaps realistic, analysis available of the
costs of and potential for CO, sequestration
through tree planting.

The primary focus of this report is on the
direct social costs of such a program—the
sum of the full cost of establishing trees and
the market rental value of the land without
consideration of whom would bear the cost
(Government or private interests) or how that
burden would shift over time. These costs
are projected over a period of 40 years,
which is within the lifespan of all tree species
considered. Some species, of course, are
commonly grown for periods of more than 80
years. However, 40 years was considered to
be a reasonable planning horizon, given the
expansion in scientific knowledge concerning
the phenomena of global climate change,
improvements in the efficiency of energy use,

and such that are likely to occur over the
next 40 years.

Because of the 40-year planning horizon,
questions relating to carbon flows associated
with the final dispositions of timber stands,
including timber harvesting and carbon
storage in forest products, are not addressed
in this report.

The principal result of this analysis is the
production of two cost curves for the fixation
of carbon through tree planting and forest
management. The first is a total cost

curve that shows the total annual cost of a
program associated with a given level of
annual carbon sequestering. The second

is a marginal cost curve that is used for
comparing the costs of carbon sequestering
with the costs of carbon emissions reductions.
This allows the policy analyst to examine the
cost per ton of carbon sequestered, at the
margin, of a given size of program.

The Model

The model employed for developing the cost
curves was very simple.

Basic Notation and Calculations

The following is the basic notation used in
the model:

LA*j = acres of land type i in farm
production region j, i=1...z,
Glee UE

Rj = annual rental cost in dollars per
acre of land type 7 in region 7.

P'; = tree planting/treatment cost in
dollars per acre (that is, capital
cost) on land type 7 in region j.

Y'j = annual incremental yield (cubic
feet per acre per year) of
merchantable wood on land

type 7 im region 7.

K* = conversion factor (dimensionless)
for the ratio of incremental
increase in carbon in forest
ecosystem (entire tree, soil, surface
litter, and understory growth) to
incremental increase in carbon in
merchantable wood on land type
it.

D*j = density (tons per cubic foot) of
carbon in the merchantable wood
grown on land type 2 in region j.

The annual incremental carbon (C) uptake

per acre on land type 7 in region 7 is
calculated as:

C17 =Y'jK'D;

The potential total national carbon (TC)
uptake is:

TC =) 7D (AICS)

The cost (7'$) associated with reaching the
total national carbon uptake is:

TS = S70 LARS + An) P5y]
ee)

where A(r,n) is the annualized cost of the
capital investment P, spread over the n years
of the project life, at a discount rate of r.

The average cost per ton of carbon is simply:
AC = T3$/TC

Carbon can be converted to CO, on a weight
basis by multiplying by a factor of 3.667,
derived by dividing the molecular weight of
carbon dioxide (44) by the molecular weight
of carbon (12).

Procedure

The procedure involved the following six
steps:

1. For each of the 10 USDA farm production
regions (figure 1 in appendix B), identify
and list potential program land areas
by land type, segregating according to
relevant dimensions (for example, soil,
region, climate, erodibility, slope, and
current use and condition).

2. Match each land type with an appropriate
forestry treatment, such as planting,
natural regeneration, and so forth, and
with an appropriate mix of species.

3. For each land type in each region,
determine the likely rental cost per acre.

4. For each land type in each region,
determine the treatment cost and rental
cost per acre.

5. For each land type in each region, with its

associated forestry treatment, determine
the expected incremental annual yield

of merchantable wood per acre. The
total incremental carbon yield per acre is
derived by multiplying the merchantable
wood figure by a conversion ratio that
may be land type specific. Each of the
forestry treatments will have a certain
mix of species, and each of those species
will have a specific density of carbon. The
product of the incremental merchantable
wood yield, the specific carbon density of
the wood, and a factor relating carbon
in merchantable wood to total forest
ecosystem carbon determine the carbon
fixation rate for each land type in each
region.

. Calculate the gross carbon fixation costs
as:

[Capitalized planting costs + rent]/carbon
fixation rate.

The model thus far provides only total yields

and total and average costs of a program
that uses all marginal lands—the largest
possible program. The effect on total and
marginal costs of limiting the size of the
program may be calculated as follows:

1. By arranging each land type in each
region (LA‘j) in ascending order according
to its associated carbon fixation cost, the
land areas that capture carbon most
cheaply are at the top of the list and the
most expensive are at the bottom.

2. The marginal cost curve is derived by
plotting the carbon fixation cost ($ per
ton) in the ascending list against the
cumulative tons sequestered.

3. The total program cost of a given amount
of carbon sequestering is derived by
plotting the cumulative cost (cost =
[$ per ton] x [tons per acre] x [acres
in LA‘j]) against the cumulative tons
sequestered.

Data Collection

The data were largely derived from USDA
sources, such as the Soil Conservation
Service National Resources Inventory (NRI),
Economic Research Service land rental

data, and Agricultural Stabilization and
Conservation Service reports and computer
files for the Conservation Reserve Program
(CRP). The tables referenced in the following

subsections are in Appendix A.
Land Area and Type

The target acres are economically marginal
and environmentally sensitive croplands and
pasturelands and non-Federal forestlands

on which growth rates could be increased.
Marginal and environmentally sensitive
agricultural lands were defined by the use of
soil erosion rates in the current land use and
by the land’s suitablity for agricultural use
according to its land capability class (LCC).

One of the criteria for selecting land was soil
loss tolerance, 7, which is the maximum
average annual rate of soil loss that a specific
soil can sustain without suffering a decline in
its long-term productivity. The value of T
ranges from 1 ton to 5 tons of soil loss per
acre per year, but it is 5 tons per acre per
year for about 70 percent of all soils.

Agricultural lands also were evaluated on
the basis of the eight classes of land (I to
VIII) in the Land Capability Classification
System, which groups soils according to their
ability to produce commonly cultivated crops
and pasture plants without degradation

or productivity loss. Class I soils are the
best and have no severe limitations. Classes
II through VIII indicate progressively
greater limitations and narrower choices for
agricultural use. All of the classes except I
are divided into subclasses to indicate the
dominant limitation for agricultural use.
Those subclasses are “e,” where erosion or
damage from erosion is the dominant hazard;

“w,” to indicate excess water; “s,” to indicate
limiting soil conditions such as shallowness,
stoniness, or salinity; and “c,” where climate
is the major limitation. For CRP, a
combination of the measures has been used
to determine eligibility for inclusion (USDA
ASCS 1989a, p. 8).

Subclass “w” soils are of special interest

to this study because of their potential to
contribute to the pollution of surface water
and groundwater supplies when they are used
in agricultural production. While subclass
“w” soils, hereafter often referred to as “wet
soils,” include wetlands, wet soils influence a
much larger area of land that is wet because
of poor soil drainage, high water tables, or
flooding.

Cropland—Table 2 in appendix A lists the
potential cropland area by State and region.
There are three types of cropland that could
be included beneficially in a tree planting
program: (1) land eroding at rates greater
than the tolerable rate, T; (2) land in LCC
V to VII; and (3) land classified as wet soil.
The areas of highly erodible land, in the
second column of Table 2 are drawn from
USDA SCS 1989b, appendix table 10. The
cropland in LCC V to VII, the third to
fifth columns of table 2, is from Resources
Conservation Act (RCA) Appendix table 3a.
However, these figures must be adjusted to
avoid double counting with the erodible land
in the second column.

There are 19.3 million acres of U.S. land in
LCC V to VII (USDA SCS 1987, table 25b),
not including Alaska and the Caribbean
territories. Of these acres, 7.4 million have
already been included in the erodible land
of the second column. Assuming that the
62 percent figure can be applied uniformly
throughout the United States, the sixth
column shows the sum of the third through
fifth columns, adjusted down by 38 percent.

The figures for wet cropland in the seventh
column of table 2 are taken from the Draft
RCA appraisal (USDA SCS 1989b, p. 11-9,
table 11-5). There is likely very little double
counting with the previous columns because
wet soils are generally on relatively level land,
which would not figure prominently in the

erodible land or in the LCC V to VII.

Pastureland—Table 3 lists the potential
pastureland area by State and region. As
with cropland, this analysis recognizes

three types of pastureland that could be
beneficially included in a tree planting
program: (1) land eroding at rates greater
than the tolerance rate, T; (2) land in LCC
VII and VIII; and (3) land classified as wet

soil.

The areas of highly erodible pastureland in
the second column of table 3 are drawn from
table A4-11 of the Draft RCA Appraisal
(USDA SCS 1989b). Land in LCC VII and
VIII, the third and fourth columns of table 3,
is from the Second RCA Appraisal (USDA
SCS 1989b), appendix table 3b. As with
cropland, these were adjusted to reflect land
already accounted for as erodible land in the
second column. There are 9.8 million acres
of LCC VII and VIII pastureland in the
United States, of which 38 percent is included
in the second column. Assuming this figure
is constant across the States, the third to
fifth columns reflect the 62 percent of LCC
VII and VIII that is not reflected in erodible
lands. There is a total of 116.4 million acres
of pastureland in LCC II, III, IV, and VI in
the United States, of which 25.6 million, or
22 percent, is wet soils (USDA ASCS 1989a,
table II-A). Based on the assumption that
this rate is constant across all States, figures
for wet pastureland were derived (USDA SCS
1989b, appendix table 3b). The results are
presented in the sixth through tenth columns
in table 3.

Forestland—Forestland area, listed in table
8, 1s categorized as either grazed or ungrazed.

The marginal areas of these two categories
were further classified according to which of
the following three treatment types was most
appropriate:

1. Planting trees—These stands are in such
poor condition that there is no practical
option but to replant. This land may be
dominated by brush and scrub growth
that precludes the natural establishment
of trees, or there may be no natural seed
source for natural regeneration. The
figures for grazed and ungrazed forestland
are taken from the fifth column of tables
14a and 13a, respectively, of NRI Basic
Statistics (USDA SCS 1987a).

2. Improved management of existing stands
(passive management)—The treatment
in these areas would consist of placing
the land under formal management
agreements that require owners to
reduce or eliminate grazing and to avoid
overharvesting practices that leave the
stand so understocked that the growth
does not fully utilize the site. This
also would involve some erosion control
practices. The figures for grazed and
ungrazed forestland requiring passive
management are from the fourth and
seventh columns of tables 14a and 13a,
respectively, of the NRI Basic Statistics
(USDA SCS 1987a).

3. Improved management of existing stands
(active management)—These are stands
best managed through active steps,
such as the removal of cull and other
slow-growing trees and soil preparation
to promote natural regeneration of
vigorous new trees. Figures for these
grazed and ungrazed areas were drawn
from the sixth column of tables 14a and
13a, respectively, of NRI Basic Statistics
(USDA SCS 1987a).

Rental Rate

Annual rental rates are the most subjective
(and hence the most difficult to estimate)
figures included in the model. The estimates
used here are conservative, reflecting the
assumption that it will take significant
additional incentives to encourage landowners
to make long-term commitments to

tree planting. Ultimately, only actual
implementation of a program will reveal
whether these figures are realistic. The
figures on which these estimates are based
are shown in table 10, “Derivation of Land
Rent Figures.”

Cropland—tThe following three sets of data
help estimate cropland rental rates under a
Federal tree planting program:

1. Conservation Reserve Program rental
rates for the first seven signups, from
table 4 of the supplement to the CRP
Progress Report (USDA ASCS 1990).
There are also data for the acres bid
and the bid rental rates, as well as the
acres contracted and contract rental rates
for the first through the fourth signups
(table III-A, USDA ASCS 1989a). The
U.S. average contracted rental rate for
CRP increased steadily from $42.06 per
acre in the first signup to $53.38 per acre
in the fourth.

2. Rental rates in the private sector for dry
cropland (that is, not irrigated) in 1987
and 1988 (table 3, USDA ERS 1989c).
For most States, CRP average rates are
above those for the private market.

3. The average purchase or sale value of dry
cropland in the private market (table 2,

USDA ERS 1989c).

An interesting insight is gained by examining
the ratio of average rental to average sale
prices for each of the States. That ratio

ranges from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent for
States such as Massachusetts, Delaware, and
New Jersey and from 9 percent to 11 percent
for South Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming.
The CRP rental rates have been nearly
double the private rental rates. If the low
ratios in the Northeast are caused by land
speculation, it may be very difficult to get
landowners to make long-term commitments
to tree growing in that region. And the high
ratios in the Northern Plains and Mountain
regions indicate that it may be less expensive
to purchase land for tree growing than to
rent it. An alternative explanation for the
differences between CRP and market rental
rates may lie within the two sets of data.
CRP acres tend to be clustered in certain
localities where land values and rental rates,
in some instances, may not be accurately
portrayed by State average rental rates. Also,
CRP rental rates are fixed for the 10-year
contract period, and farmers may simply be
bidding higher to allow for expected increases
in market rates over the contract period.

The final estimates of cropland rental

rates were, as mentioned above, relatively
subjective. They were based primarily on the
CRP rental rates, adjusted upward by 10 to
15 percent—to reflect that the most eager
renters have already entered the program

and adjusted upward an additional 5 to 10
percent for those regions in which land values
were very high relative to private rental rates.
In no case was the rental rate allowed to
exceed 20 percent of the land value.

Pastureland—State-by-State figures for
private rental rates on pasturelands were
adjusted to estimate program rental rates
(table 2, USDA ERS 1989c). The expected
rental rate for pastureland was derived by
multiplying the expected cropland rental rate
by the ratio of private grazing land rental
rates to private cropland rental rates.

Forestland—Forestland was expected to
have the lowest opportunity cost of any

land type and was accordingly assigned a
rental rate equal to 35 percent of that of the
pastureland for the same region.

Treatment Cost

Treatinent cost per acre, shown in column 3
of table 1, varies according to the land type
and the region of the country. The figures
include total costs (public plus private) for
the entire treatment, which in the case of
tree planting includes the seedlings, planting,
site preparation, and postplanting treatment
and care required to ensure establishment.
No allowance was made for subsequent costs
that owners may incur for practices such as
precommercial thinnings, release cuttings,
and pruning. Although such practices

may frequently enhance the production of
commercial timber products, it does not
necessarily follow that the ability of stands to
sequester carbon will be increased.

Cropland—The figures in Table 1 for wet
and dry cropland treatment costs were
derived from the second column of tables 4
and 5, respectively. For each region, the costs
reflect a given mix of tree species, based on
listorical planting patterns. In some regions,
costs vary slightly between wet and dry areas
because of differences in species mix. For
example, although Douglas-fir was the single
inost important species on the drier erodible
cropland in the Pacific region, it is not as
prevalent in the wet soils planting in that
region because it does not thrive in wet soils.

Species mix and planting practice costs

for dry soils were derived from ASCS
Conservation Reporting and Evaluation
Systems files, based on special runs by the
Forest Service. For wet soils, the species were
inodified according to Forest Service figures

(USDA FS 1983a).

Pastureland—tThe treatment of pastureland
is identical to that for cropland, except that
additional costs are incurred for initial

preparation (soil preparation, weed control,
and so on). The fact that treatment costs
are generally higher for pastureland than for
cropland reflects this additional requirement,
as shown in tables 6 and 7.

Forestland—As mentioned above, the
grazed and ungrazed marginal, non-Federal
forestland areas can be distinguished as

to treatment type required. Each of these
treatment costs carries a unique cost figure,
as follows:

1. Planting trees—The figures for this
activity were derived from Forest Service
figures (table 9.4, USDA FS 1988).
Because the regions do not correspond
exactly to the regions used in this study,
some transposition of State cost figures
was required.

2. Passive management—This treatment may
be as simple as requiring the landowner to
close gates, but it also may in some cases
require new fencing or other expenses.
Expert advice indicated the cost to be
approximately $4 per acre.

3. Active management—The figures for
active management also were derived
using the stocking control figures (table
9.4, USDA FS 1988). The derivation
of these figures required the same
assumptions, transposing, and calculations
as the derivation of the planting trees
figures.

Incremental Carbon Capture

Column 4 of table 1 is an estimate of the

additional annual uptake of carbon per acre
for each region and soil type. It is composed
of the product of the following three factors:

1. The incremental gain in cubic feet of
merchantable (commercially salable) wood
per acre per year (Risbrudt and Ellefson

1983, table 16; USDA 1983b, Appendix
he

2. The ratio of the carbon contained in the
incremental increase in the trees, soil, and
surface litter to the carbon contained in
the incremental merchantable wood.

3. The carbon density in pounds per cubic
foot of wood.

The Forest Service has collected extensive
data on the first factor, which varies with the
land type, region, and treatment of the area.
The figures for the carbon ratio are derived
from recent research conducted by the Forest
Service (Birdsey 1990a, b). Those conversion
factors range from 1.9 (pines planted in
Northeast forestland) to 8.4 (spruce planted
in various soil types and regions). Specific
gravities for wood by tree species were
obtained from the Wood Handbook (USDA
FS 1987b). The final factor, carbon density,
has been estimated by Brown (1988) for a
variety of species of trees.

Cropland—tThe ninth column of tables

4 and 5 represents the annual capture of
carbon. These figures are derived by dividing
the product of the fourth, sixth, and seventh
columns by 2,000 to convert pounds to tons.
The wet soils generally have a higher yield of
wood than the dry. For example, yields of
loblolly pine and slash pine are approximately
20 percent higher in wet soils. While these
species adapt to a wide variety of sites, both
achieve their optimal growth on wet soils.

Pastureland—Wet and dry pastureland
yields of merchantable wood are expected
to follow patterns similar to cropland, with
a 15-percent reduction to reflect problems
of competing weeds and a generally inferior
quality of soil.

Forestland—tThe incremental carbon yield
for forestland was calculated in much
the same way as for cropland. For the

treatment types “planting trees” and “active
management,” the incremental yield of
merchantable wood was drawn from table 9-4
of USDA (1988). This is shown on a regional
basis in the last column of the respective
sections in table 8. Each regional yield of
merchantable wood for planting trees and
active management was distributed among
the various species for that region, based on
the area weight (the second column) of the
species. The merchantable wood yield by
species and region is shown in the columns
titled “Merch. wood” under the headings
“Planting trees” and “Active management”
in table 9. The figures for merchantable
wood were multiplied by the carbon density
figures (the fourth column) and the total
carbon ratio (the fifth column) to derive

the yield of carbon for planting trees and
active management, as shown in table 9. The
incremental yield of merchantable wood (and
hence carbon) for passive management was
estimated as 50 percent of that for active
treatment.

Annualization of the Treatment Cost

To provide comparability to annual rents
and annual incremental yields of carbon
sequestering, the treatment costs were
annualized. A period of 40 years was

chosen to reflect a reasonable lifetime for a
program of this magnitude. Longer periods
would have little effect on the relative
contribution of the treatment cost to total
cost. An interest rate of 10 percent was
assumed, yielding a capital recovery factor of
0.10226 (column 5, table 1). This factor was
multiplied by the treatment cost to yield an
annual cost equivalent for the treatment cost
(column 6, table 1), and this was added to
the annual rent, to produce a total annual
cost in dollars per acre, shown in column 7 of
table 1.

Unit Cost of Sequestering Carbon

In table 1, the cost per ton of carbon

sequestered (column 8) was calculated by
dividing the total annual cost per acre
(column 7), by tons of carbon per acre per
year (column 4) for each region, land type,
and soil type. For example, it costs $37 per
ton to use dry cropland in the Corn Belt to
sequester carbon, but it is only $22 per

ton to use planting on forestland in the
Northeast.

Carbon Sequestering Potential

Column 9 of table 1 shows the total carbon
capturing potential of each land type in
each region. This was derived by simply
multiplying the total land area (column 1)
for each land type by the incremental yield
per acre for that land type (column 4). This
suggests that while only 1.1 million tons of
carbon could be captured using the dry
pastureland in the Northern Plains region,
105.2 million tons could be captured if all of
the marginal wet cropland in the Corn Belt
were used.

10

Development of Cost Curves

The final cost curves were derived by sorting
the various regional land types in ascending
order according to their unit cost figures in
column 8 of table 1. This configuration helps
identify the tree planting areas that provide
the least cost capture of carbon, the tons of
carbon that can be sequestered at those
costs, and the number of acres involved in
each area. The results for the initial data
and assumptions are shown in table 1A. From
this table, two types of cost curves were
developed. The total cost curve is a graph
of the total cost of a carbon sequestering
program as a function of the number of

tons of carbon captured. The marginal cost
curve is a graph of the marginal cost of

an additional ton of carbon capture as a
function of the total tons of carbon captured.
This helps answer the question: “If we are
already capturing 100 million tons of carbon,
what would be the cost of capturing an
additional ton?”

Results and Discussion

The total and marginal cost curves are
displayed in figures 2 and 3, respectively.
Along with tables 1 and 1A in appendix A,
these results lead to the following relevant
observations.

e Based on an estimated current annual
U.S. net emissions of carbon (in the
form of CO.) of 1.4 billion short
tons per year, a tree planting and
management program limited to
marginal agricultural and forestland
could achieve as much as a 56.4-percent
decrease in net emissions.

e The cost of a program to achieve
a 56.4-percent reduction would be
approximately $19.5 billion per year.
As shown in table 11, the annual cost
of achieving 10-, 20-, and 30-percent
reductions would be approximately $1.7,
$4.5, and $7.7 billion, respectively.

e The marginal cost of carbon captured
in programs designed to reduce net CO,
emissions by 10, 20, 30 and 56 percent
is $16.9, $20.9, $23.6, and $43.3 per

ton, respectively.

e As shown in table 11, a least-cost
program to reduce net emissions of
CO, by 10 percent would involve
approximately 71 million acres. Of
this, 22.2 million (31 percent) are
pastureland, 36.9 million (52 percent)
are forestland, and 11.8 million (17
percent) are cropland (figure 4).

e As shown in table 11, the average cost
of achieving 10-, 20-, and. 30-percent
offsets would be $12.02, $15.73, and
$17.91 per ton, respectively.

e The costs of the program are
dominated by land rental costs, with
the establishment or planting costs

11

generally constituting less than 40
percent of total annualized costs on the
crop and pastureland.

One area of concern is the extent to
which a tree planting program would
compete with other productive uses of
the land, particularly crop production.
First, it must be emphasized that

this analysis has been limited in
scope to economically marginal and
environmentally sensitive croplands,
pasturelands, and forestlands on
which growth rates of trees could be
enhanced. Second, as the results in
table 1A and figure 4 indicate, the
first 10-percent (143 million tons per
year) offset would involve relatively
little cropland. As indicated in Figure
5, however, the relatively few acres

of cropland that are included at the
200-million-tons-per-year level provide a
disproportionate share of the carbon
sequestration. This is because of the
contribution of relatively inexpensive
but productive cropland in the
Mountain region. Beyond 200 million
tons per year, virtually all of the
significant capacity is on cropland.

Because most of the costs associated
with a large-scale planting program are
in the rental or land opportunity costs,
the effect of the discount rate is not
strong. As shown in Figure 6, at 800
million tons per year, lowering the
discount rate from 10 percent (which
was employed for this analysis) to 4
percent decreases the total annualized
costs by approximately

10 percent.

The relative number of acres used in
each region depends on the size of the
tree planting program (table 12). For
example, a least-cost program designed

to offset 5 percent of total U.S. CO,
emissions would involve no land from
Appalachia, whereas in a 30-percent
reduction program that region would
have the highest share of acreage. In
contrast, the Pacific region would have
more acreage involved in a 5-percent

12

program than any other region, but its
contribution would increase only slightly
in a 30-percent program, making it one
of the least significant regions. At

no level is a large acreage from the
Northeast involved.

Limitations of the Analysis

The scope of this analysis is, by design,
limited to the direct costs to society,
measured in terms of the estimated
expenditures required for tree planting

and other forest practices and the implicit
cost—as represented by market rental
rates—of foregoing opportunities to continue
alternative uses of the land. Such a program,
of course, would affect society beyond these
direct costs.

Fischman (1990) of the Environmental

Law Institute has termed tree planting a
no-lose option that provides enough social,
environmental, and economic benefits to
justify program expenses irrespective of the
outcome of the greenhouse debate. Obviously,
the scale of any such program would be an
important factor. Increases in the scale of
tree planting would very likely have a number
of external effects, such as changes in soil
erosion rates, water quality and water flows,
wildlife populations and species composition,
and measurable effects on other areas,
including farm income and consumer prices
for food.

The indirect impacts of CRP and other
resource provisions of the 1985 Farm Bill are
in some ways analogous to an expanded

tree program, and various aspects of these
programs have been reported. For example,
see Moulton and Dicks (1987), Robinson
(1987), Ribaudo (1989), Moulton and et al.
(1989), and Young and Osborne (1990).

Another important feature of the study

is that it does not consider the effects of
timber harvesting on the carbon budgets of
forest ecosystems. This is consistent within
the focus of what could be done within an
intermediate timeframe to offset atmospheric
carbon dioxide and the 40-year planning
horizon of the study, during which little
harvesting of a final nature would need to
occur. Birdsey (1990a) has looked at the

release of carbon in harvesting and has
related this to the increased rate of carbon
dioxide assimulation associated with younger
and faster growing replacement forest stands.
In addition, Row (1990) has investigated the
storage of carbon in forest products.

This analysis also does not consider the
startup period for a tree planting program.
The assumption has been one of “instant
trees” —as if society has committed funds,
and there will immediately be several million
new acres of trees fixing carbon. In fact, a
large-scale effort could take 5 to 20 years
simply to plant the trees, depending on the
number of acres involved, and then another
5 to 15 years for those trees to be fixing
carbon at the rates used in this analysis.
This inevitably will bring some costs forward,
while delaying the environmental benefits.

There also are limitations to the material
that is included in the analysis. As indicated
under “Data Collection,” the land rental
rates have been particularly difficult to
estimate. Here, we have attempted to use
conservative estimates, 12 to 25 percent
higher than the historic CRP rental

rates, which, in turn, generally have been
considerably higher than the private market
rental rates. Notwithstanding, the rental
rates, as well as all other estimates of costs,
are first-order estimates. Further research
should consider nonmarginal changes in costs
associated with very large-scale reforestation
in a general equilibrium context.

Similarly, the estimates of incremental timber
yield are based on the historic performance
of each region where the programs have not
been designed to maximize carbon capture.
With improved genetic strains, changes in the
species mix, and management for optimizing
CO, uptake, the yield of carbon capture

per acre could be improved considerably. ecosystem are the best available, further
Also, while the ratios relating merchantable research on this critical factor is needed.
wood carbon to total carbon in the forest

14

Iteferences

Birdsey, R. 1990a. The carbon cycle impacts
of forests and forestry changes. In:
Proceedings, North American Conference
on Forestry Responses to Climate
Change; 1990 May 15-17; Washington,
DC: The Climate Institute. (in process)

Birdsey, R. 1990b. Estimation of regional
carbon yields for forest types in the
United States. Draft manuscript.

Brown, 5S. 1988. The global carbon cycle.
Science 241:1739; September 30.

Dudek, D. 1988. Offsetting new CO,
emissions. Paper presented at the Annual
WEA Int’! Meeting; 1989 June 18-22;
Lake Tahoe, CA: Environmental Defense
Funds.22 \p-

Fischman, R. 1990. A program lovely
as a tree. Environmental Forum 7:

March/April 1990.

Marland, G. 1988. The prospect of
solving the CO, problem through
global reforestation. DOE Report
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Moulton, R.; Dicks, M.R. 1987. Implications
of the 1985 Farm Act for Forestry. In:
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Economists; 1987 April 8-10; Asheville,
NC: 163-176.

Moulton, R.; Hyberg, B.; Hebert, T.; Dicks,
M. 1989. The timberland in Conservation
Reserve Program and its effect on

15

southern rural economies. In: Proceedings,
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Forest Economists; 1989 March 1-3; San
Antionio, TX: 144-159.

Ribaudo, M.O. 1989. Water quality benefits
from the Conservation Reserve Program.
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Risbrudt, C.; Ellefson, P. 1983. An economic
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Robinson, A.Y. 1987. Saving soil and
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Row, C. 1990. The carbon cycle impacts of
improving forestry products utilization
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15-17; Washington, DC: The Climate

Institute.

Sedjo, R. 1989. Forests to offset the
greenhouse effect. Journal of Forestry

Silas: duly.

Young, C.E.; Osborne, C.T. 1990. The
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U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil
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Department of Agriculture.

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situation in the United States 1989-2040.
Part II: The future resource situation.

16

(Draft). Washington, DC: U.S. Deparment
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Washington, DC: U.S. Department of
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Appendix A—Tables

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Table 11—Program Statistics by Percentage Reduction From 1.43 Billion Short Tons per
Year

Annual CO) offset Total annual

(percent/millions of Land requirement cost Average cost
short tons) (millions of acres) (billion $) ($/ton carbon)
Bi faced 36.9 0.7 Oevz
10 /143 70.9 a RA 12.02
20 /286 138.4 4.5 15.73
30 /429 197.6 olf 17.91

Table 12—Regional Land Areas by Percentage Reduction From 1.43 Billion
Short Tons per Year

Acres included in first:

5% 10% 20% 30%
Northeast (6) 0 Le Or 4,129
Appalachia 0 7,105 24,450 38,190
Southeast 800 7,688 26 ,073 26 ,073
Lake States 5,466 7,872 9,660 13,980
Corn Belt 3,959 7,628 12,594 17,826
Delta States 5,417 7,023 17 ,603 35,830
Northern Plains 2,584 2,584 2,584 9,744
Southern Plains 7,906 7,906 15,975 15,974
Mountain 1,819 13,785 13,785 14,623

Pacific 8,989 8,989 9,909 10,113

Appendix B—Figures

44

Figure 1

USDA Farm Production Regions

Pacific

Mountain Northern
Plains Northeast
Re States

\

den

AL GA
Southeast
Southern
Plains Delta

Figure 2
Total Annual Cost of Carbon Sequestering
Billions of Dollars

25

20 e

e@
15
e@ °°
e
10 xe
e
e
@
e e
5 Pid
ee?
e oe
eb
oom oe
0 wee l
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Tons of Carbon Sequestered (Million)

Figure 3

Marginal Cost of Carbon Sequestering
(Dollars/Ton of Carbon at Margin)

Dollars/Ton
50

40

30

20

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Millions of Tons of Carbon Sequestered

Figure 4

Acreage Requirements by Land Type (Millions of Acres)

Millions of Acres

400
350
300
ae Total Acreage
200
150 Cropland J j
L/
100 Pastureland = - V1
50
0 — 400 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Millions of Tons of Carbon Sequestered

Figure 5
a a aS a a

Carbon Sequestration by Land Type
(Millions of Tons of Carbon Annually)

Millions of Tons of Carbon Sequestered
1000

800

600

400

200

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Millions of Acres

Figure 6

Effect of Discount Rate on Total Costs, Capital Recovery Over 40 Years

Billions of Dollars Annually
25

20

ees 10 percent

=== § percent

6 percent

5 ==waw= 4 percent

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Millions of Tons of Carbon Sequestered

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1990 0—862-946

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